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Perceived collision risks in anchorages : a hierarchical ordered probit analysis

Debnath, Ashim Kumar & Chin, Hoong Chor (2009) Perceived collision risks in anchorages : a hierarchical ordered probit analysis. In Debnath, Ashim Kumar & Chin, Hoong Chor (Eds.) 8th Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies Conference, 16-19 November 2009, Surabaya, Indonesia.

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      Navigational collisions are a major safety concern in many seaports. Despite the recent advances in port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in anchorages. This study attempts to model such risks by employing a hierarchical ordered probit model, which is calibrated by using data collected through a risk perception survey conducted on Singapore port pilots. The hierarchical model is found to be useful to account for correlations in risks perceived by individual pilots. Results show higher perceived risks in anchorages attached to intersection, local and international fairway; becoming more critical at night. Lesser risks are perceived in anchorages featuring shoreline in boundary, higher water depth, lower density of stationary ships, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Pilotage experience shows a negative effect on perceived risks. This study indicates that hierarchical modeling would be useful for treating correlations in navigational safety data.

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      ID Code: 51381
      Item Type: Conference Paper
      Keywords: Collision risk perception, Anchorage, Harbor pilot, Hierarchical regression
      Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400)
      Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
      Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > MARITIME ENGINEERING (091100)
      Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
      Copyright Owner: Copyright 2009 Please consult the authors.
      Deposited On: 04 Jul 2012 12:51
      Last Modified: 31 Aug 2012 05:35

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