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Navigational safety in port waters: Techniques for modeling collision risk

Debnath, Ashim Kumar & Chin, Hoong Chor (2011) Navigational safety in port waters: Techniques for modeling collision risk. In Advances in Environmental Research Volume 17. Nova Science Publishers Inc, pp. 435-456.

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Abstract

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Continuing growth of shipping traffic in number and sizes is likely to result in increased number of traffic movements, which consequently could result higher risk of collisions in these restricted waters. This continually increasing safety concern warrants a comprehensive technique for modeling collision risk in port waters, particularly for modeling the probability of collision events and the associated consequences (i.e., injuries and fatalities). A number of techniques have been utilized for modeling the risk qualitatively, semi-quantitatively and quantitatively. These traditional techniques mostly rely on historical collision data, often in conjunction with expert judgments. However, these techniques are hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of collision counts for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique (NTCT), which uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collisions for modeling the probability of collision events quantitatively. This article explores the existing techniques for modeling collision risk in port waters. In particular, it identifies the advantages and limitations of the traditional techniques and highlights the potentials of the NTCT in overcoming the limitations. In view of the principles of the NTCT, a structured method for managing collision risk is proposed. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which consequently has great potential for managing collision risk in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

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ID Code: 51404
Item Type: Book Chapter
Keywords: Navigational Collision Risk, Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique, Port water, Shipping collision, Qunatitative Risk Assessment
ISBN: 9781612099651
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > MARITIME ENGINEERING (091100)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety - Qld (CARRS-Q)
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > Schools > School of Psychology & Counselling
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2011 Nova Science Publishers Inc
Deposited On: 04 Jul 2012 08:24
Last Modified: 04 Jul 2012 10:34

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