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A proposed validation framework for expert elicited Bayesian Networks

Pitchforth, Jegar & Mengersen, Kerrie (2013) A proposed validation framework for expert elicited Bayesian Networks. Expert Systems with Applications, 40(1), pp. 162-167.

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Abstract

The popularity of Bayesian Network modelling of complex domains using expert elicitation has raised questions of how one might validate such a model given that no objective dataset exists for the model. Past attempts at delineating a set of tests for establishing confidence in an entirely expert-elicited model have focused on single types of validity stemming from individual sources of uncertainty within the model. This paper seeks to extend the frameworks proposed by earlier researchers by drawing upon other disciplines where measuring latent variables is also an issue. We demonstrate that even in cases where no data exist at all there is a broad range of validity tests that can be used to establish confidence in the validity of a Bayesian Belief Network.

Impact and interest:

10 citations in Scopus
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6 citations in Web of Science®

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31 since deposited on 19 Jul 2012
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ID Code: 52041
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: validation, bayesian network, complex systems, expert elicited
DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2012.07.026
ISSN: 0957-4174
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Applied Statistics (010401)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Statistical Theory (010405)
Divisions: Current > Schools > School of Mathematical Sciences
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2012 Elsevier
Copyright Statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Expert Systems with Applications. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Expert Systems with Applications, [VOL 40, ISSUE 1, (2013)] DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2012.07.026
Deposited On: 19 Jul 2012 12:27
Last Modified: 02 Feb 2014 01:53

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