Forecasting volatility and correlation : the role of option implied measures

Coleman-Fenn, Christopher Andrew (2012) Forecasting volatility and correlation : the role of option implied measures. PhD thesis, Queensland University of Technology.

Abstract

Forecasts of volatility and correlation are important inputs into many practical financial problems. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of generating forecasts of these variables. Firstly, time-series models apply a statistical weighting scheme to historical measurements of the variable of interest. The alternative methodology extracts forecasts from the market traded value of option contracts.

An efficient options market should be able to produce superior forecasts as it utilises a larger information set of not only historical information but also the market equilibrium expectation of options market participants. While much research has been conducted into the relative merits of these approaches, this thesis extends the literature along several lines through three empirical studies.

Firstly, it is demonstrated that there exist statistically significant benefits to taking the volatility risk premium into account for the implied volatility for the purposes of univariate volatility forecasting. Secondly, high-frequency option implied measures are shown to lead to superior forecasts of the intraday stochastic component of intraday volatility and that these then lead on to superior forecasts of intraday total volatility. Finally, the use of realised and option implied measures of equicorrelation are shown to dominate measures based on daily returns.

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ID Code: 53138
Item Type: QUT Thesis (PhD)
Supervisor: Clements, Adam & Hurn, Aubrey
Keywords: volatility risk premium, implied volatility, implied correlation, model confidence set, intraday volatility, equicorrelation, realised equicorrelation
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Economics & Finance
Institution: Queensland University of Technology
Deposited On: 14 Aug 2012 05:20
Last Modified: 10 Sep 2015 02:08

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