On the efficacy of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts

Clements, Adam, Doolan, Mark, Hurn, Stan, & Becker, Ralf (2012) On the efficacy of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts. In Ulubasoglu, Mehmet & Kidd, Michael (Eds.) Econometric Society Australasian Meeting (ESAM12), 3-6 July 2012, Langham Hotel, Melbourne, VIC.

View at publisher

Abstract

The performance of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet as well understood as their univariate counterparts. This paper aims to evaluate the efficacy of a range of traditional statistical-based methods for multivariate forecast evaluation together with methods based on underlying considerations of economic theory. It is found that a statistical-based method based on likelihood theory and an economic loss function based on portfolio variance are the most effective means of identifying optimal forecasts of conditional covariance matrices.

Impact and interest:

Search Google Scholar™

Citation counts are sourced monthly from Scopus and Web of Science® citation databases.

These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.

Citations counts from the Google Scholar™ indexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.

ID Code: 54186
Item Type: Conference Paper
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Multivariate volatility , forecasts, forecast evaluation, model confidence set
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Economics & Finance
Deposited On: 16 Oct 2012 23:11
Last Modified: 12 Jun 2013 15:14

Export: EndNote | Dublin Core | BibTeX

Repository Staff Only: item control page