High temperatures-related elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year: Important information for heat-warning systems

Guo, Yuming, Barnett, Adrian G., & Tong, Shilu (2012) High temperatures-related elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year: Important information for heat-warning systems. Scientific Reports, 2(830).

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We examined the variation in association between high temperatures and elderly mortality (age ≥ 75 years) from year to year in 83 US cities between 1987 and 2000. We used a Poisson regression model and decomposed the mortality risk for high temperatures into: a “main effect” due to high temperatures using lagged non-linear function, and an “added effect” due to consecutive high temperature days. We pooled yearly effects across both regional and national levels. The high temperature effects (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year. In every city there was at least one year where higher temperatures were associated with lower mortality. Years with relatively high heat-related mortality were often followed by years with relatively low mortality. These year to year changes have important consequences for heat-warning systems and for predictions of heat-related mortality due to climate change.

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ID Code: 56115
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: temperature, heat, heat-warning
DOI: 10.1038/srep00830
ISSN: 2045-2322
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2012 the authors
Copyright Statement: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
Deposited On: 07 Jan 2013 03:38
Last Modified: 19 Dec 2016 01:23

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