The effect of project information on the accuracy of building price forecasts

Skitmore, Martin (1987) The effect of project information on the accuracy of building price forecasts. In Brandon, Peter S. (Ed.) Building Cost Modelling and Computers. E and F.N. Spon Ltd., London, pp. 327-336.


A fundamental proposition is that the accuracy of the designer's tender price forecasts is positively correlated with the amount of information available for that project. The paper describes an empirical study of the effects of the quantity of information available on practicing Quantity Surveyors' forecasting accuracy.

The methodology involved the surveyors repeatedly revising tender price forecasts on receipt of chunks of project information. Each of twelve surveyors undertook two projects and selected information chunks from a total of sixteen information types. The analysis indicated marked differences in accuracy between different project types and experts/non-experts. The expert surveyors' forecasts were not found to be significantly improved by information other than that of basic building type and size, even after eliminating project type effects. The expert surveyors' forecasts based on the knowledge of building type and size alone were, however, found to be of similar accuracy to that of average practitioners pricing full bills of quantities.

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ID Code: 59693
Item Type: Book Chapter
Additional URLs:
ISBN: 9780419140405
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200) > Quantity Surveying (120203)
Divisions: Current > Schools > School of Civil Engineering & Built Environment
Copyright Owner: Copyright 1987 E and F.N. Spon Ltd.
Deposited On: 06 May 2013 04:51
Last Modified: 12 Oct 2015 08:04

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