Heuristics and building price forecasting

Skitmore, Martin (1983) Heuristics and building price forecasting. In Proceedings 2nd South East Asian Survey Congress, Hong Kong, pp. 1-8.

Abstract

The construction industry contains two types of estimators the contractors' estimator and the designers' price forecaster. Each has two models of the building in which to systemize his procedures - the production model and the design model. The use of these models is discussed in the light of the industry's particular problems of complexity and uncertainty together with the pressures of the market. It is argued that estimators and forecasters, in order to function effectively in these conditions, are forced to exercise a high degree of subjective judgment. Means of eliciting good heuristics involved in judgment making are considered by reference to the artificial intelligence and construction literature and a methodology is proposed based on these findings. The results of two early trials of the method with students are given, indicating the usefulness of the approach.

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ID Code: 59697
Item Type: Conference Paper
Refereed: Yes
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200) > Quantity Surveying (120203)
Divisions: Current > Schools > School of Civil Engineering & Built Environment
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 1983 please consult the author
Deposited On: 06 May 2013 00:59
Last Modified: 06 May 2013 02:01

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