The momentum effect in competitions : field evidence from tennis matches

Page, Lionel (2009) The momentum effect in competitions : field evidence from tennis matches. In Econometric Society Australasian Meeting in 2009 (ESAM09), 7-10 July 2010, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT. (Unpublished)

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It is often suggested that there is a psychological advantage to be leading in a competition. It is, however, hard to identify such an effect econometrically. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design over a large dataset of tennis matches (N=634,095) the present paper exploits the randomised variation in first set results that occurs when the first set is decided by a close tie break (N=72,294). I find that winning the first set has a significant and strong effect on the result of the second set. A player who wins a close first set tie break will, on average, win one game more in the second set. I discuss the likely economic and psychological explanations of this phenomenon.

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ID Code: 59798
Item Type: Conference Paper
Refereed: Yes
Additional Information: No File Attached
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Sport
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ECONOMICS (140000) > APPLIED ECONOMICS (140200) > Applied Economics not elsewhere classified (140299)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Economics & Finance
Deposited On: 26 Jun 2013 03:35
Last Modified: 26 Jun 2013 03:35

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