A method for predicting rain-induced instability of an individual slope

Suryo, Eko Andi, Gallage, Chaminda, & Trigunarsyah, Bambang (2015) A method for predicting rain-induced instability of an individual slope. In Barnes, Paul H. & Goonetilleke, Ashantha (Eds.) The 9th Annual International Conference of the International Institute for Infrastructure Renewal and Reconstruction. (8-10 July 2013), Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia, pp. 118-127.

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Abstract

Awareness to avoid losses and casualties due to rain-induced landslide is increasing in regions that routinely experience heavy rainfall. Improvements in early warning systems against rain-induced landslide such as prediction modelling using rainfall records, is urgently needed in vulnerable regions. The existing warning systems have been applied using stability chart development and real-time displacement measurement on slope surfaces. However, there are still some drawbacks such as: ignorance of rain-induced instability mechanism, mislead prediction due to the probabilistic prediction and short time for evacuation.

In this research, a real-time predictive method was proposed to alleviate the drawbacks mentioned above. A case-study soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 2010 during rainfall was used to verify the proposed predictive method. Using the results from the field and laboratory characterizations, numerical analyses can be applied to develop a model of unsaturated residual soils slope with deep cracks and subject to rainwater infiltration. Real-time rainfall measurement in the slope and the prediction of future rainfall are needed. By coupling transient seepage and stability analysis, the variation of safety factor of the slope with time were provided as a basis to develop method for the real-time prediction of the rain-induced instability of slopes.

This study shows the proposed prediction method has the potential to be used in an early warning system against landslide hazard, since the FOS value and the timing of the end-result of the prediction can be provided before the actual failure of the case study slope.

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ID Code: 61759
Item Type: Conference Paper
Refereed: Yes
Additional Information: Conference was held in July 2013. Proceedings published online March 2015.
Keywords: numerical analysis, rain-induced slope instability, real-time prediction, CEDM, Risk-informed Disaster Management: Planning for Response, Recovery and Resilience
ISBN: 9781921897733
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Civil Geotechnical Engineering (090501)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Emergency & Disaster Management
Current > Schools > School of Civil Engineering & Built Environment
Current > Schools > School of Earth, Environmental & Biological Sciences
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2013 Please consult the authors
Deposited On: 12 Aug 2013 00:11
Last Modified: 15 Apr 2015 12:27

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