A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

Reiner, Robert C., Perkins, Alex, Barker, Christopher M., Niu, Tianchan, Chaves, Luis Fernando, Ellis, Alicia M., George, Dylan B., Le Manach, Arnaud, Pulliam, Juliet R.C., Bisanzio, Donal, Buckee, Caroline, Chiyaka, Christinah, Cummings, Derek A.T., García, Andrés J., Gatton, Michelle L., Gething, Peter W., Hartley, David M., Johnston, Geoffrey, Klein, Eili Y., Michael, Edwin, Lindsay, Steven, W., Lloyd, Alun L., Pigott, David M., Reisen, William K., Ruktanonchai, Nick, Singh, Brajendra K., Tatem, Andrew J., Kitron, Uriel, Hay, Simon I., Scott, Thomas W., & Smith, David L. (2013) A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 10, p. 20120921.

View at publisher


Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Impact and interest:

83 citations in Scopus
Search Google Scholar™
73 citations in Web of Science®

Citation counts are sourced monthly from Scopus and Web of Science® citation databases.

These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.

Citations counts from the Google Scholar™ indexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.

Full-text downloads:

146 since deposited on 29 Sep 2013
88 in the past twelve months

Full-text downloads displays the total number of times this work’s files (e.g., a PDF) have been downloaded from QUT ePrints as well as the number of downloads in the previous 365 days. The count includes downloads for all files if a work has more than one.

ID Code: 62955
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: infectious disease dynamics, vector-borne disease, epidemiology, dengue, West Nile, filariasis
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0921
ISSN: 1742-5662
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2013 The Author(s)
Copyright Statement: Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Deposited On: 29 Sep 2013 23:35
Last Modified: 30 Sep 2013 22:55

Export: EndNote | Dublin Core | BibTeX

Repository Staff Only: item control page