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Long Term Sales Forecasts of Innovations – An Empirical Study of the Consumer Electronic Market

Kaya, Maria, Steffens, Paul R., & Albers, Sonke (2007) Long Term Sales Forecasts of Innovations – An Empirical Study of the Consumer Electronic Market. In AGSE Entrepreneurship Research Exchange, February 7-9, Brisbane. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

This paper empirically examines models of replacement sales for six electronic consumer durables – TVs, VCRs, DVD players, Digital Cameras, personal and notebook computers – using data from a large survey of 8077 German households. A new replacement model is developed that fits the empirical "lifetables" better than existing models. This said, fitting to replacement sales data was not substantially improved as these fits are not particularly sensitive to mis-specification of the shape of the underlying distribution. Since many product innovations can be targeted at replacement rather than first purchase buyers – this improved understanding of replacement behaviour helps entrepreneurs identify new opportunities.

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346 since deposited on 15 Mar 2007
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ID Code: 6513
Item Type: Conference Paper
Keywords: consumer durables, marketing, product innovation, Maria Kaya, Paul Steffens
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > COMMERCE MANAGEMENT TOURISM AND SERVICES (150000) > BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT (150300)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > COMMERCE MANAGEMENT TOURISM AND SERVICES (150000)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > COMMERCE MANAGEMENT TOURISM AND SERVICES (150000) > MARKETING (150500) > Marketing not elsewhere classified (150599)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Australian Centre for Entrepreneurship
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Management
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2007 (please consult the authors)
Deposited On: 15 Mar 2007
Last Modified: 29 Feb 2012 23:36

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