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A Model of Multiple Ownership as a Diffusion Process

Steffens, Paul R. (2003) A Model of Multiple Ownership as a Diffusion Process. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70(9), pp. 901-917.

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Abstract

This paper develops and tests a new model for multiple-unit adoptions of durable goods based on the diffusion modeling tradition. Multiple-unit adoptions are a major component of sales for many consumer durable product categories. For instance, sales of multiple-unit adoptions for televisions have been high than both first adoptions and replacement purchases since 1977, while for automobiles they have represented more than 20% of sales since 1966 in Australia. The structural drivers of multiple-unit adoptions are quite different from either first or replacement purchases. Hence, identifying and modeling the multiple-unit component of sales is important for aggregate sales forecasts. Moreover, consumer requirements for additional units of a product are likely to be considerably different to than for the other components of sales (first purchases and replacement purchases). As such, the ratio of the first, multiple and replacement sales components will strongly influence the product mix requirements of the market. While forecasting and influencing multiple-unit sales is an important managerial issue, very little attention has been given to multiple-unit ownership in the diffusion modeling literature. The only model available was developed for the purpose of modeling relatively short-term behavior of multiple-unit adoptions, rather than the longer-term pattern of sales. We propose a model of multiple-unit adoptions as a diffusion process. We apply the model to both color television and automobiles. Analysis of the model’s long-term fit and forecasts in these applications provide support for the structure of the new model.

Impact and interest:

16 citations in Web of Science®
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ID Code: 6518
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Marketing Models, Diffusion, Durable Products, Ownership, Paul Steffens
DOI: 10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00398-0
ISSN: 0040-1625
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > COMMERCE MANAGEMENT TOURISM AND SERVICES (150000) > BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT (150300)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > COMMERCE MANAGEMENT TOURISM AND SERVICES (150000) > BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT (150300) > Innovation and Technology Management (150307)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > COMMERCE MANAGEMENT TOURISM AND SERVICES (150000) > MARKETING (150500) > Marketing not elsewhere classified (150599)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Australian Centre for Entrepreneurship
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Management
Copyright Owner: Copyrigth 2003 Elsevier
Copyright Statement: Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Deposited On: 16 Mar 2007
Last Modified: 29 Feb 2012 23:24

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