Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting : evidence from a natural experiment

Morton, Rebecca B., Mueller, Daniel, Page, Lionel, & Torgler, Benno (2013) Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting : evidence from a natural experiment. In Botticini, Maristella, Abbring, Jaap, & Biais, Bruno (Eds.) European Economic Association and Econometric Society Conferenece (EEA-ESEM 2013), 26-30 August 2013, Gothenburg, Sweden.

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Abstract

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 12 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

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ID Code: 65231
Item Type: Conference Paper
Refereed: Yes
Additional URLs:
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Economics & Finance
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2013 Please consult the authors
Deposited On: 10 Dec 2013 23:16
Last Modified: 18 Mar 2014 07:32

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