A methodology for estimating exposure-controlled crash risk using traffic Police crash data

Haque, Md. Mazharul, Washington, Simon, & Watson, Barry C. (2013) A methodology for estimating exposure-controlled crash risk using traffic Police crash data. In Procedia: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Volume 104 [2nd Conference of Transportation Research Group of India (2nd CTRG)], Elsevier, Agra, India, pp. 972-981.

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Exposure control or case-control methodologies are common techniques for estimating crash risks, however they require either observational data on control cases or exogenous exposure data, such as vehicle-kilometres travelled. This study proposes an alternative methodology for estimating crash risk of road user groups, whilst controlling for exposure under a variety of roadway, traffic and environmental factors by using readily available police-reported crash data. In particular, the proposed method employs a combination of a log-linear model and quasi-induced exposure technique to identify significant interactions among a range of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions to estimate associated crash risks. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a set of police-reported crash data from January 2004 to June 2009 on roadways in Queensland, Australia. Exposure-controlled crash risks of motorcyclists—involved in multi-vehicle crashes at intersections—were estimated under various combinations of variables like posted speed limit, intersection control type, intersection configuration, and lighting condition. Results show that the crash risk of motorcycles at three-legged intersections is high if the posted speed limits along the approaches are greater than 60 km/h. The crash risk at three-legged intersections is also high when they are unsignalized. Dark lighting conditions appear to increase the crash risk of motorcycles at signalized intersections, but the problem of night time conspicuity of motorcyclists at intersections is lessened on approaches with lower speed limits. This study demonstrates that this combined methodology is a promising tool for gaining new insights into the crash risks of road user groups, and is transferrable to other road users.

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ID Code: 66319
Item Type: Conference Paper
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Crash risk, Exposure, Log-linear model, Induced exposure technique, Interaction effects, Motorcyclist risk, Motorcycles
DOI: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.11.192
ISSN: 1877-0428
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Applied Statistics (010401)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety - Qld (CARRS-Q)
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2013 Elsevier
Copyright Statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Procedia. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Procedia, [VOL 104, (2013)] DOI: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.11.192
Deposited On: 20 Jan 2014 01:56
Last Modified: 22 Jan 2014 04:43

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