Examining the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region
Banu, Shahera (2013) Examining the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region. PhD by Publication, Queensland University of Technology.
Dengue fever (DF) is a serious public health concern in many parts of the world. An increase in DF incidence has been observed globally over the past decades. Multiple factors including urbanisation, increased international travels and global climate change are thought to be responsible for increased DF. However, little research has been conducted in the Asia-Pacific region about the impact of these changes on dengue transmission. The overarching aim of this thesis is to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region and project the future risk of DF attributable to climate change.
Annual data of DF outbreaks for sixteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region over the last fifty years were used in this study. The results show that the geographic range of DF in this region increased significantly over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam and Laos were identified as the highest risk areas and there was a southward expansion observed in the transmission pattern of DF which might have originated from Philippines or Thailand. Additionally, the detailed DF data were obtained and the space-time clustering of DF transmission was examined in Bangladesh. Monthly DF data were used for the entire country at the district level during 2000-2009.
Dhaka district was identified as the most likely DF cluster in Bangladesh and several districts of the southern part of Bangladesh were identified as secondary clusters in the years 2000-2002.
In order to examine the association between meteorological factors and DF transmission and to project the future risk of DF using different climate change scenarios, the climate-DF relationship was examined in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The results show that climate variability (particularly maximum temperature and relative humidity) was positively associated with DF transmission in Dhaka. The effects of climate variability were observed at a lag of four months which might help to potentially control and prevent DF outbreaks through effective vector management and community education. Based on the quantitative assessment of the climate-DF relationship, projected climate change will likely increase mosquito abundance and activity and DF in this area. Assuming a temperature increase of 3.3oC without any adaptation measures and significant changes in socio-economic conditions, the consequence will be devastating, with a projected annual increase of 16,030 cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh by the end of this century. Therefore, public health authorities need to be prepared for likely increase of DF transmission in this region.
This study adds to the literature on the recent trends of DF and impacts of climate change on DF transmission. These findings may have significant public health implications for the control and prevention of DF, particularly in the Asia- Pacific region.
Impact and interest:
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|Item Type:||QUT Thesis (PhD by Publication)|
|Supervisor:||Tong, Shilu, Hu, Wenbiao, & Hurst, Cameron|
|Keywords:||dengue fever, climate change, scan statistics, space-time cluster, distributed lag model, socio-environmental factors, geographic information system|
|Divisions:||Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
|Institution:||Queensland University of Technology|
|Deposited On:||20 Jan 2014 02:17|
|Last Modified:||07 Sep 2015 00:47|
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