Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Banu, Shahera, Hu, Wenbiao, Guo, Yuming, Hurst, Cameron, & Tong, Shilu (2014) Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Environment International, 63, pp. 137-142.

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Abstract

Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3 °C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.

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16 citations in Scopus
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14 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 67037
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Dengue, Climate change, Bangladesh
DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2013.11.002
ISSN: 01604120
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2013 Elsevier Ltd.
Copyright Statement: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Environment International. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Environment International, [Volume 63, (February 2014)] DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2013.11.002
Deposited On: 07 Feb 2014 01:42
Last Modified: 04 Mar 2016 01:56

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