Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

Toan, Do Thi Thanh, Hu, Wenbiao, Thai, Pham Quang, Hoat, Luu Ngoc, Wright, Pamela, & Martens, Pim (2013) Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam. Global Health Action, 6.

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Abstract

INTRODUCTION

Dengue fever (DF) in Vietnam remains a serious emerging arboviral disease, which generates significant concerns among international health authorities. Incidence rates of DF have increased significantly during the last few years in many provinces and cities, especially Hanoi. The purpose of this study was to detect DF hot spots and identify the disease dynamics dispersion of DF over the period between 2004 and 2009 in Hanoi, Vietnam.

METHODS

Daily data on DF cases and population data for each postcode area of Hanoi between January 1998 and December 2009 were obtained from the Hanoi Center for Preventive Health and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported DF. Spatial scan statistics and logistic regression were used to identify space-time clusters and dispersion of DF.

RESULTS

The study revealed a clear trend of geographic expansion of DF transmission in Hanoi through the study periods (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34). The spatial scan statistics showed that 6/14 (42.9%) districts in Hanoi had significant cluster patterns, which lasted 29 days and were limited to a radius of 1,000 m. The study also demonstrated that most DF cases occurred between June and November, during which the rainfall and temperatures are highest.

CONCLUSIONS

There is evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of DF in Hanoi, and that the geographical distribution of DF has expanded over recent years. This finding provides a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors responsible for changing disease patterns, and provides data to inform program planning for DF control.

Impact and interest:

17 citations in Scopus
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7 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 67675
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
DOI: 10.3402/gha.v6i0.18632
ISSN: 1654-9880
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Epidemiology (111706)
Divisions: Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2013 Do Thi Thanh Toan et al.
Copyright Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-
Noncommercial 3.0 Unported License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), permitting all non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction
in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Deposited On: 23 Feb 2014 23:55
Last Modified: 25 Feb 2014 23:06

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