Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Smith, David L., Perkins, Alex, Reiner, Robert C., Barker, Christopher M., Niu, Tianchan, Fernando Chaves, Luis, Ellis, Alicia M., George, Dylan B., Le Menach, Arnaud, Pulliam, Juliet R.C., Bisanzio, Donal, Buckee, Caroline, Chiyaka, Christinah, Cummings, Derek A.T., García, Andrés J., Gatton, Michelle L., Gething, Peter W., Hartley, David M., Johnston, Geoffrey, Klein, Eili Y., Michael, Edwin, Lloyd, Alun L., Pigott, David M., Reisen, William K., Ruktanonchai, Nick, Singh, Brajendra K., Stoller, Jeremy, Tatem, Andrew J., Kitron, Uriel, Godray, H. Charles J., Cohen, Justin M., Hay, Simon I., & Scott, Thomas W. (2014) Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 108(4), pp. 185-197.

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Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

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ID Code: 68133
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Dengue, Filariasis, Malaria, Mosquito-borne pathogen transmission, Vector control, West Nile virus
DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/tru026
ISSN: 0035-9203
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > APPLIED MATHEMATICS (010200) > Biological Mathematics (010202)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2014 The Author(s)
Copyright Statement: Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (
3.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Deposited On: 13 Mar 2014 01:58
Last Modified: 06 Jun 2015 09:38

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