QUT ePrints

Ageing drivers: Storm in a teacup?

Tay, Richard S. (2006) Ageing drivers: Storm in a teacup? Accident Analysis and Prevention, 38(1), pp. 112-121.

View at publisher

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to address two important issues regarding ageing drivers. First, there is a presumption in the road safety arena that the expected increase in the number of ageing drivers on the roads will lead to an increase in crashes. Second, despite extensive research on ageing drivers, especially on their increased vulnerability and reduced driving abilities, the most widely recommended road safety strategy relates to the control of their driving licenses. This presumption and the associated policy recommendation are based mainly on the higher relative crash risks associated with ageing drivers compared to their younger counterparts. This study, however, argues that the average crash risks obtained in previous studies provide only indirect information concerning these issues and any decision based on these results may produce unexpected outcomes. An analytical framework to examine the marginal effect of changing the driver mix on the roads is proposed and a simple empirical model is estimated as an illustration. In contrast to previous studies, we found that increasing the number of licenses issued to ageing drivers had only an insignificant impact on the number of fatal crashes on the roads, suggesting that the concern over ageing drivers may be a storm in a teacup.

Impact and interest:

22 citations in Scopus
Search Google Scholar™
19 citations in Web of Science®

Citation countsare sourced monthly from Scopus and Web of Science® citation databases.

These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.

Citations counts from the Google Scholar™ indexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.

ID Code: 6968
Item Type: Journal Article
Additional Information: For more information, please refer to the journal's website (see hypertext link) or contact the author: r.tay@qut.edu.au
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Road safety, Ageing drivers, Licensing, Marginal effects, Australia, Econometrics
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2005.07.009
ISSN: 0001-4575
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Preventive Medicine (111716)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > COMMERCE MANAGEMENT TOURISM AND SERVICES (150000) > TRANSPORTATION AND FREIGHT SERVICES (150700) > Road Transportation and Freight Services (150703)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified (111799)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Health Promotion (111712)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > COMMERCE MANAGEMENT TOURISM AND SERVICES (150000) > TRANSPORTATION AND FREIGHT SERVICES (150700) > Transportation and Freight Services not elsewhere classified (150799)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety - Qld (CARRS-Q)
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2006 Elsevier
Deposited On: 16 Apr 2007
Last Modified: 20 Aug 2013 14:46

Export: EndNote | Dublin Core | BibTeX

Repository Staff Only: item control page