Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation
Albert, Isabelle, Donnet, Sophie, Guihenneuc-Jouyaux, Chantal, Low-Choy, Samantha, Mengersen, Kerrie, & Rousseau, Judith (2012) Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation. Bayesian Analysis, 7(3), pp. 503-532.
We consider the problem of combining opinions from different experts in an explicitly model-based way to construct a valid subjective prior in a Bayesian statistical approach. We propose a generic approach by considering a hierarchical model accounting for various sources of variation as well as accounting for potential dependence between experts. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem deals with a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. Two hierarchical levels of variation are considered (between and within experts) with a complex mathematical situation due to the use of an indirect probit regression. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school. It illustrates a complex situation where three hierarchical levels of variation are modelled but with a simpler underlying probability distribution (log-Normal).
Impact and interest:
Citation counts are sourced monthly from and citation databases.
These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.
Citations counts from theindexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Keywords:||Bayesian statistics, Hierarchical model, Random effects, Risk assessment|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Applied Statistics (010401)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Statistical Theory (010405)
|Divisions:||Current > Schools > School of Mathematical Sciences
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 2012 International Society for Bayesian Analysis|
|Deposited On:||22 Jun 2014 23:18|
|Last Modified:||23 Jun 2014 23:07|
Repository Staff Only: item control page