Extreme water level exceedance probabilities around Australia

McPherson, Leigh R., Haigh, Ivan D., Mason, Matthew S., Wijeratne, E.M.S., Pattiaratchi, Charitha B., & George, Steve (2012) Extreme water level exceedance probabilities around Australia. In Coastal Engineering 2012 : Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference, Coastal Engineering Research Council, Santander, Spain.

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The potential impacts of extreme water level events on our coasts are increasing as populations grow and sea levels rise. To better prepare for the future, coastal engineers and managers need accurate estimates of average exceedance probabilities for extreme water levels. In this paper, we estimate present day probabilities of extreme water levels around the entire coastline of Australia. Tides and storm surges generated by extra-tropical storms were included by creating a 61-year (1949-2009) hindcast of water levels using a high resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model driven with meteorological data from a global reanalysis. Tropical cyclone-induced surges were included through numerical modelling of a database of synthetic tropical cyclones equivalent to 10,000 years of cyclone activity around Australia. Predicted water level data was analysed using extreme value theory to construct return period curves for both the water level hindcast and synthetic tropical cyclone modelling. These return period curves were then combined by taking the highest water level at each return period.

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ID Code: 73664
Item Type: Conference Paper
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: water levels, storm surges, tropical cyclones, numerical modelling, exceedance probabilities
ISBN: 9780989661119
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > EARTH SCIENCES (040000) > OCEANOGRAPHY (040500) > Physical Oceanography (040503)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > MARITIME ENGINEERING (091100) > Ocean Engineering (091103)
Divisions: Current > Institutes > Institute for Future Environments
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2012 please consult author(s)
Deposited On: 11 Jul 2014 00:05
Last Modified: 21 Jun 2017 14:49

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