Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Wilson, David P., Gray, Richard, Heymer, Kelly-Jean, Hoare, Alexander, Kwon, Jisoo, Thein, Hla-Hla, Worth, Heather, & Kaldor, John M. (2009) Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia. University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW.

View at publisher (open access)


Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission.

This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics:

(i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining);

(ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked).

Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions.

It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

Impact and interest:

2 citations in Web of Science®
Search Google Scholar™

Citation counts are sourced monthly from Scopus and Web of Science® citation databases.

These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.

Citations counts from the Google Scholar™ indexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.

Full-text downloads:

59 since deposited on 21 Oct 2014
28 in the past twelve months

Full-text downloads displays the total number of times this work’s files (e.g., a PDF) have been downloaded from QUT ePrints as well as the number of downloads in the previous 365 days. The count includes downloads for all files if a work has more than one.

ID Code: 77917
Item Type: Report
Refereed: No
Divisions: Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > Schools > School of Mathematical Sciences
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
  • AUSAID/#
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2009 University of New South Wales
Deposited On: 21 Oct 2014 22:42
Last Modified: 23 Oct 2014 05:32

Export: EndNote | Dublin Core | BibTeX

Repository Staff Only: item control page