Spatial and temporal patterns of locally-acquired dengue transmission in northern Queensland, Australia, 1993-2012

Naish, Suchithra, Dale, Pat, Mackenzie, John S., McBride, John, Mengersen, Kerrie, & Tong, Shilu (2014) Spatial and temporal patterns of locally-acquired dengue transmission in northern Queensland, Australia, 1993-2012. Plos One, 9(4), e92524.

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Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993-2012.

METHODS:

Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques.

RESULTS:

2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ(2) = 15.17, d.f.  = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland.

CONCLUSIONS:

Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas.

Impact and interest:

6 citations in Scopus
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7 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 78146
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0092524
ISSN: 1932-6203
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Funding:
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2014 Naish et al.
Copyright Statement: This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Deposited On: 30 Oct 2014 23:38
Last Modified: 09 Jul 2015 13:58

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