Combining opinions for use in Bayesian networks: A measurement error approach

Farr, Anna Charisse, Simpson, Daniel, Ruggeri, Fabrizio, & Mengersen, Kerrie (2014) Combining opinions for use in Bayesian networks: A measurement error approach. PLoS One. (In Press)

Abstract

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasing popular in a range of fields including ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis, and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts, or from user opinions. An interest therefore lies in the way in which multiple opinions can be represented and used in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to combine opinions for use in the quantification of a BN. The multiple opinions are treated as a realisation of measurement error and the model uses the posterior probabilities ascribed to each node in the BN which are computed from the prior information given by each expert. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the lack of the conditional independence structure of the BN being maintained, and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied an existing Bayesian Network and performed well when compared to existing methods of combining opinions.

Impact and interest:

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ID Code: 79211
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Expert opinions, Measurement error
ISSN: 1932-6203
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Statistics not elsewhere classified (010499)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS)
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Funding:
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2014 The Author(s)
Deposited On: 05 Dec 2014 00:05
Last Modified: 01 Jul 2017 03:24

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