A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network framework for passenger facilitation modelling

Wu, Paul Pao-Yen, Pitchforth, Jegar, & Mengersen, Kerrie (2014) A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network framework for passenger facilitation modelling. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 46, 247- 260.

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This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system.

A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa.

A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an R2 goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 h test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including causal analysis and ‘what-if’ analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

Impact and interest:

3 citations in Scopus
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4 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 79985
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Complex systems, Dynamic system, Modelling, Bayesian Network, Airport, Passenger facilitation
DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2014.05.005
ISSN: 0968-090X
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS)
Current > Schools > School of Mathematical Sciences
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
Copyright Statement: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, Volume 46, September 2014, DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2014.05.005
Deposited On: 13 Jan 2015 02:13
Last Modified: 14 Dec 2015 07:37

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