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A probability method for assessing variability in budget estimates for highway asset management

Piyatrapoomi, Noppadol, Kumar, Arun, Robertson, Neil, & Weligamage, Justin (2005) A probability method for assessing variability in budget estimates for highway asset management. In The 5th International Conference on Road and Airfield Pavement technology (ICPT5), 10-12 May 2005, South Korea, Seoul.

Abstract

There are inaccuracies in predicting maintenance and rehabilitation costs for road networks due to the variability and uncertainties in road network condition. To realistically predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs, stochastic characteristics of road network condition should be considered in the estimate. It may, however, not be feasible or practicable to include every single stochastic characteristic of road network conditions in the analysis. To explore this possibility in assessing variations in cost estimates, an analysis was conducted to identify input parameters that are critical for predicting road deterioration condition. Findings indicated that the variability in pavement strength significantly contributed to the variability of predicting road pavement deterioration. Based on this information, discrepancies in cost estimates due to the variability of pavement strength for road maintenance and rehabilitation were subsequently assessed. This paper presents the results of an analysis that was undertaken to identify critical input parameters for road pavement deterioration prediction. The paper also presents a probability method developed for assessing the variation in road maintenance and rehabilitation.

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ID Code: 8002
Item Type: Conference Paper
Additional Information: For more information, please contact the author: n.piyatrapoomi@qut.edu.au
Keywords: CRC for Construction Innovation, Program C : Delivery Management of Built Assets , Project 2003-029-C : Maintenance Cost Prediction for Roads
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > CRC Integrated Engineering Asset Management (CIEAM)
Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Past > Schools > School of Urban Development
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2005 The Authors
Copyright Statement: The Participants of the CRC for Construction Innovation have delegated authority to the CEO of the CRC to give Participants permission to publish material created by the CRC for Construction Innovation. This delegation is contained in Clause 30 of the Agreement for the Establishment and Operation of the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation. The CEO of the CRC for Construction Innovation gives permission to the Queensland University of Technology to publish the papers/publications provided in the collection in QUT ePrints provided that the publications are published in full. Icon.Net Pty Ltd retains copyright to the publications. Any other usage is prohibited without the express permission of the CEO of the CRC. The CRC warrants that Icon.Net Pty Ltd holds copyright to all papers/reports/publications produced by the CRC for Construction Innovation.
Deposited On: 06 Jun 2007
Last Modified: 11 Aug 2011 04:14

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