Stochastic analysis of transit route segments' passenger load variation for capacity and quality of service assessment

Bunker, Jonathan M. (2015) Stochastic analysis of transit route segments' passenger load variation for capacity and quality of service assessment. In Perk, Victoria (Ed.) Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C.


This paper investigates stochastic analysis of transit segment hourly passenger load factor variation for transit capacity and quality of service (QoS) analysis using Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia. It compares stochastic analysis to traditional peak hour factor (PHF) analysis to gain further insight into variability of transit route segments’ passenger loading during a study hour. It demonstrates that hourly design load factor is a useful method of modeling a route segment’s capacity and QoS time history across the study weekday. This analysis method is readily adaptable to different passenger load standards by adjusting design percentile, reflecting either a more relaxed or more stringent condition. This paper also considers hourly coefficient of variation of load factor as a capacity and QoS assessment measure, in particular through its relationships with hourly average and design load factors. Smaller value reflects uniform passenger loading, which is generally indicative of well dispersed passenger boarding demands and good schedule maintenance. Conversely, higher value may be indicative of pulsed or uneven passenger boarding demands, poor schedule maintenance, and/or bus bunching. An assessment table based on hourly coefficient of variation of load factor is developed and applied to this case study. Inferences are drawn for a selection of study hours across the weekday studied.

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ID Code: 80280
Item Type: Conference Paper
Refereed: Yes
Additional URLs:
Keywords: transit, quality of service, load factor, peak hour factor
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
Divisions: Current > Schools > School of Civil Engineering & Built Environment
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2015 the Author
Deposited On: 20 Jan 2015 03:07
Last Modified: 27 May 2015 06:54

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