QUT ePrints

A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets

Pagan, Adrian R. & Sossounov, Kirill A. (2003) A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), pp. 23-46.

View at publisher

Abstract

Bull and bear markets are a common way of describing cycles in equity prices. To fully describe such cycles one would need to know the data generating process (DGP) for equity prices. We begin with a definition of bull and bear markets and use an algorithm based on it to sort a given time series of equity prices into periods that can be designated as bull and bear markets. The rule to do this is then studied analytically and it is shown that bull and bear market characteristics depend upon the DGP for capital gains. By simulation methods we examine a number of DGPs that are known to fit the data quite well—random walks, GARCH models, and models with duration dependence. We find that a pure random walk provides as good an explanation of bull and bear markets as the more complex statistical models. In the final section of the paper we look at some asset pricing models that appear in the literature from the viewpoint of their success in producing bull and bear markets which resemble those in the data.

Impact and interest:

89 citations in Scopus
Search Google Scholar™
61 citations in Web of Science®

Citation countsare sourced monthly from Scopus and Web of Science® citation databases.

These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.

Citations counts from the Google Scholar™ indexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.

ID Code: 8045
Item Type: Journal Article
Additional Information: For more information or for a copy of this article see the publisher URL above or contact the author at a.pagan@qut.edu.au
DOI: 10.1002/jae.664
ISSN: 1099-1255
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ECONOMICS (140000) > APPLIED ECONOMICS (140200) > Financial Economics (140207)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Economics & Finance
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons
Deposited On: 06 Jun 2007
Last Modified: 29 Feb 2012 23:19

Export: EndNote | Dublin Core | BibTeX

Repository Staff Only: item control page