A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances

Conforti, Raffaele, de Leoni, Massimiliano, La Rosa, Marcello, van der Aalst, Wil M.P., & ter Hofstede, Arthur H.M. (2015) A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances. Decision Support Systems, 69, pp. 1-19.

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Abstract

This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a business process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we suggest to the participant the action to perform which minimizes the predicted process risk. Risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions, which consider process data, involved resources, task durations and other information elements like task frequencies. When applied in the context of multiple process instances running concurrently, a second technique is employed that uses integer linear programming to compute the optimal assignment of resources to tasks to be performed, in order to deal with the interplay between risks relative to different instances. The recommendation system has been implemented as a set of components on top of the YAWL BPM system and its effectiveness has been evaluated using a real-life scenario, in collaboration with risk analysts of a large insurance company. The results, based on a simulation of the real-life scenario and its comparison with the event data provided by the company, show that the process instances executed concurrently complete with significantly fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when the recommendations provided by our recommendation system are taken into account.

Impact and interest:

18 citations in Scopus
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15 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 80850
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Business process management, Risk management, Risk prediction, Job scheduling, Work distribution, YAWL
DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2014.10.006
ISSN: 0167-9236
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES (080000)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES (080000) > COMPUTER SOFTWARE (080300) > Software Engineering (080309)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES (080000) > INFORMATION SYSTEMS (080600)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES (080000) > INFORMATION SYSTEMS (080600) > Information Systems Management (080609)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES (080000) > INFORMATION SYSTEMS (080600) > Information Systems not elsewhere classified (080699)
Divisions: Current > Institutes > Institute for Future Environments
Current > Schools > School of Information Systems
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Funding:
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
Copyright Statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Decision Support Systems. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Decision Support Systems, [VOL 69, (2015)] DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2014.10.006
Deposited On: 22 Jan 2015 02:49
Last Modified: 27 Jan 2015 23:51

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