Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models
Misiorek, Adam, Trueck, Stefan, & Weron, Rafal (2006) Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 10(3).
In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the electricity spot market. In particular we calibrate AR/ARX ("X" stands for exogenous/fundamental variable—system load in our study), AR/ARX-GARCH, TAR/TARX and Markov regime-switching models to California Power Exchange (CalPX) system spot prices. We then use them for out-ofsample point and interval forecasting in normal and extremely volatile periods preceding the market crash in winter 2000/2001. We find evidence that (i) non-linear, threshold regime-switching (TAR/TARX) models outperform their linear counterparts, both in point and interval forecasting, and that (ii) an additional GARCH component generally decreases point forecasting efficiency. Interestingly, the former result challenges a number of previously published studies on the failure of non-linear regime-switching models in forecasting.
Impact and interest:
Citation counts are sourced monthly from and citation databases.
These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.
Citations counts from theindexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.
Full-text downloads displays the total number of times this work’s files (e.g., a PDF) have been downloaded from QUT ePrints as well as the number of downloads in the previous 365 days. The count includes downloads for all files if a work has more than one.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Keywords:||NONLINEAR ANALYSIS, ELECTRICITY PRICES, Interval Forecasting|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ECONOMICS (140000)|
|Divisions:||Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School|
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 2006 The Berkeley Electronic Press|
|Copyright Statement:||Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.|
|Deposited On:||20 Jun 2007|
|Last Modified:||28 Apr 2015 00:12|
Repository Staff Only: item control page