Cost-effective biodiversity restoration with uncertain growth in forest habitat quality

Gren, I. M., Baxter, P. W. J., Mikusinski, G., & Possingham, H. (2014) Cost-effective biodiversity restoration with uncertain growth in forest habitat quality. Journal of Forest Economics, 20(1), pp. 77-92.

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Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model for cost-effective selection of sites for restoring biodiversity when habitat quality develops over time and is uncertain. A safety-first decision criterion is used for ensuring a minimum level of habitats, and this is formulated in a chance-constrained programming framework. The theoretical results show; (i) inclusion of quality growth reduces overall cost for achieving a future biodiversity target from relatively early establishment of habitats, but (ii) consideration of uncertainty in growth increases total cost and delays establishment, and (iii) cost-effective trading of habitat requires exchange rate between sites that varies over time. An empirical application to the red listed umbrella species - white-backed woodpecker - shows that the total cost of achieving habitat targets specified in the Swedish recovery plan is doubled if the target is to be achieved with high reliability, and that equilibrating price on a habitat trading market differs considerably between different quality growth combinations. © 2013 Elsevier GmbH.

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ID Code: 82386
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Chance constrained programming, Cost-effective biodiversity restoration, Spatial and temporal heterogeneity, Uncertainty, White-backed woodpecker in Sweden, Chance-constrained programming, Decision criterions, Forest habitats, High reliability, Umbrella Species, Biodiversity, Commerce, Computer programming, Conservation, Cost effectiveness, Costs, Restoration, Ecosystems, bird, cost-benefit analysis, forest ecosystem, habitat quality, habitat restoration, recovery plan, Red List, spatial analysis, temporal analysis, uncertainty analysis, Sweden
DOI: 10.1016/j.jfe.2013.09.003
ISSN: 11046899 (ISSN)
Divisions: Current > Schools > School of Earth, Environmental & Biological Sciences
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Deposited On: 10 Mar 2015 07:38
Last Modified: 10 Mar 2015 22:13

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