Exploration of diarrhoea seasonality and its drivers in China

Xu, Zhiwei, Hu, Wenbiao, Zhang, Yewu, Wang, Xiaofeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Su, Hong, Huang, Cunrui, Tong, Shilu, & Guo, Qing (2015) Exploration of diarrhoea seasonality and its drivers in China. Scientific Reports, 5(8241).

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This study investigated the diarrhoea seasonality and its potential drivers as well as potential opportunities for future diarrhoea control and prevention in China. Data on weekly infectious diarrhoea cases in 31 provinces of China from 2005 to 2012, and data on demographic and geographic characteristics, as well as climatic factors, were complied. A cosinor function combined with a Poisson regression was used to calculate the three seasonal parameters of diarrhoea in different provinces. Regression tree analysis was used to identify the predictors of diarrhoea seasonality. Diarrhoea cases in China showed a bimodal distribution. Diarrhoea in children <5 years was more likely to peak in fall-winter seasons, while diarrhoea in persons > = 5 years peaked in summer. Latitude was significantly associated with spatial pattern of diarrhoea seasonality, with peak and trough times occurring earlier at high latitudes (northern areas), and later at low latitudes (southern areas). The annual amplitudes of diarrhoea in persons > = 5 years increased with latitude (r = 0.62, P<0.001). Latitude 27.8° N and 38.65° N were the latitudinal thresholds for diarrhoea seasonality in China. Regional-specific diarrhoea control and prevention strategies may be optimal for China. More attention should be paid to diarrhoea in children <5 years during fall-winter seasons.

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ID Code: 83560
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Risk factors, Diarrhoea, China
DOI: 10.1038/srep08241
ISSN: 2045-2322
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2015 The Author(s)
Copyright Statement: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the
article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if
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view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Deposited On: 14 Apr 2015 22:56
Last Modified: 15 Apr 2015 23:40

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