Developing an epidemic forecasting model for Influenza A in Brisbane, Australia, based on climate and Hong Kong Influenza A surveillance data

Wang, Xi-Ling, Wong, Chit-Ming, Yang, Lin, Chan, Kwok-Hung, Soares Magalhaes, Ricardo J., Clements, Archie C.A., Tong, Shi-Lu, & Hu, Wen-Biao (2014) Developing an epidemic forecasting model for Influenza A in Brisbane, Australia, based on climate and Hong Kong Influenza A surveillance data. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 59(10), pp. 1508-1509.

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Abstract

Influenza is associated with substantial disease burden [ 1]. Development of a climate-based early warning system for in fluenza epidemics has been recommended given the signi fi - cant association between climate variability and influenza activity [2]. Brisbane is a subtropical city in Australia and offers free in fluenza vaccines to residents aged ≥65 years considering their high risks in developing life-threatening complications, especially for in fluenza A predominant seasons. Hong Kong is an international subtropical city in Eastern Asia and plays a crucial role in global infectious diseases transmission dynamics via the international air transportation network [3, 4]. We hypothesized that Hong Kong in fluenza surveillance data could provide a signal for in fluenza epidemics in Brisbane [ 4]. This study aims to develop an epidemic forecasting model for influenza A in Brisbane elders, by combining climate variability and Hong Kong in fluenza A surveillance data. Weekly numbers of laboratoryconfirmed influenza A positive isolates for people aged ≥65 years from 2004 to 2009 were obtained for Brisbane from Queensland Health, Australia, and for Hong Kong from Queen Mary Hospital (QMH). QMH is the largest public hospital located in Hong Kong Island, and in fluenza surveillance data from this hospital have been demonstrated to be representative for influenza circulation in the entirety of Hong Kong [ 5]. The Brisbane in fluenza A epidemics occurred during July –September, whereas the Hong Kong in fluenza A epidemics occurred during February –March and May –August.

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ID Code: 83569
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Influenza A, Brisbane, Hong Kong, Forecasting
DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciu595
ISSN: 1537-6591
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Copyright Owner: Copyright The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.
Deposited On: 15 Apr 2015 04:03
Last Modified: 09 Nov 2015 01:22

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