Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment

Morton, Rebecca B., Mueller, Daniel, Page, Lionel, & Torgler, Benno (2015) Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment. European Economic Review, 77, pp. 65-81.

[img] Accepted Version (PDF 848kB)
Administrators only until July 2019

View at publisher

Abstract

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

Impact and interest:

0 citations in Scopus
Search Google Scholar™

Citation counts are sourced monthly from Scopus and Web of Science® citation databases.

These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.

Citations counts from the Google Scholar™ indexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.

ID Code: 83681
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Elections; Information
DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.03.012
ISSN: 0014-2921
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Economics & Finance
Funding:
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2015 Elsevier B.V.
Copyright Statement: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in European Economic Review. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in European Economic Review, [VOL 77, (2015)] DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.03.012
Deposited On: 19 Apr 2015 22:47
Last Modified: 25 May 2015 16:33

Export: EndNote | Dublin Core | BibTeX

Repository Staff Only: item control page