Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

Farr, Anna Charisse, Ruggeri, Fabrizio, & Mengersen, Kerrie (2015) Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks. Decision Support Systems. (In Press)

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The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.

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ID Code: 84049
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Bayesian networks, Linear pooling, Posterior pooling, Prior pooling, Wayfinding, Expert opinions
ISSN: 1873-5797
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Statistics not elsewhere classified (010499)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS)
Current > Institutes > Institute for Future Environments
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Past > Schools > Mathematical Sciences
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2015 Elsevier
Deposited On: 13 May 2015 05:24
Last Modified: 10 Dec 2015 20:07

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