Evaluating and predicting overall process risk using event logs

Pika, A., van der Aalst, W.M.P., Wynn, M.T., Fidge, C.J., & ter Hofstede, A.H.M. (2016) Evaluating and predicting overall process risk using event logs. Information Sciences, 352-353, pp. 98-120.

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Companies standardise and automate their business processes in order to improve process eff ciency and minimise operational risks. However, it is di fficult to eliminate all process risks during the process design stage due to the fact that processes often run in complex and changeable environments and rely on human resources. Timely identification of process risks is crucial in order to insure the achievement of process goals. Business processes are often supported by information systems that record information about their executions in event logs. In this article we present an approach and a supporting tool for the evaluation of the overall process risk and for the prediction of process outcomes based on the analysis of information recorded in event logs. It can help managers evaluate the overall risk exposure of their business processes, track the evolution of overall process risk, identify changes and predict process outcomes based on the current value of overall process risk. The approach was implemented and validated using synthetic event logs and through a case study with a real event log.

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ID Code: 85441
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: overall process risk, process risk evaluation, event log, mining process risk
DOI: 10.1016/j.ins.2016.03.003
ISSN: 0020-0255
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2016 Elsevier
Copyright Statement: Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution; Non-Commercial; No-Derivatives 4.0 International. DOI: 10.1016/j.ins.2016.03.003
Deposited On: 16 Jul 2015 01:53
Last Modified: 23 Aug 2016 05:18

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