In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

Hollard, Guillaume, Massoni, Sebastien, & Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe (2016) In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments. Theory and Decision, 80(3), pp. 363-387.

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Abstract

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

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ID Code: 85894
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
DOI: 10.1007/s11238-015-9509-9
ISSN: 0040-5833
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Economics & Finance
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2015 Springer Science+Business Media
Deposited On: 21 Jul 2015 23:30
Last Modified: 11 Mar 2016 01:28

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