A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

Cairns, George, Goodwin, Paul, & Wright, George (2016) A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning. European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3), pp. 1050-1062.

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Scenario planning is a method widely used by strategic planners to address uncertainty about the future. However, current methods either fail to address the future behaviour and impact of stakeholders or they treat the role of stakeholders informally. We present a practical decision-analysis-based methodology for analysing stakeholder objectives and likely behaviour within contested unfolding futures. We address issues of power, interest, and commitment to achieve desired outcomes across a broad stakeholder constituency. Drawing on frameworks for corporate social responsibility (CSR), we provide an illustrative example of our approach to analyse a complex contested issue that crosses geographic, organisational and cultural boundaries. Whilst strategies can be developed by individual organisations that consider the interests of others – for example in consideration of an organisation's CSR agenda – we show that our augmentation of scenario method provides a further, nuanced, analysis of the power and objectives of all concerned stakeholders across a variety of unfolding futures. The resulting modelling framework is intended to yield insights and hence more informed decision making by individual stakeholders or regulators.

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ID Code: 86535
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Strategic Planning, Ethics in OR, Decision Processes, Scenario Method, Education
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.033
ISSN: 0377-2217
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > COMMERCE MANAGEMENT TOURISM AND SERVICES (150000) > BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT (150300) > Organisational Planning and Management (150312)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Management
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2015 Elsevier
Deposited On: 13 Aug 2015 01:04
Last Modified: 11 Dec 2015 01:31

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