Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets

Easton, Stephen & Uylangco, Katherine (2010) Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(3), pp. 564-575.

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Abstract

Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men’s and women’s matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service.

Impact and interest:

1 citations in Scopus
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1 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 86543
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Prediction markets, Market efficiency, Market microstructure, Betting markets, Betfair
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.10.004
ISSN: 0169-2070
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > COMMERCE MANAGEMENT TOURISM AND SERVICES (150000) > BANKING FINANCE AND INVESTMENT (150200) > Finance (150201)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Economics & Finance
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2009 International Institute of Forecasters
Deposited On: 13 Aug 2015 01:56
Last Modified: 18 Aug 2015 04:31

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