Spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery in China from 1990 to 2009: What is the driver behind?

Xu, Zhiwei, Hu, Wenbiao, Zhang, Yewu, Wang, Xiao-Feng, Tong, Shilu, & Zhou, Maigeng (2014) Spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery in China from 1990 to 2009: What is the driver behind? PLoS One, 9(8), Article number-e104329.

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  • Little is known about the spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery (BD) in China. This study assessed the geographic distribution and seasonality of BD in China over the past two decades.


  • Data on monthly BD cases in 31 provinces of China from January 1990 to December 2009 obtained from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and data on demographic and geographic factors, as well as climatic factors, were compiled. The spatial distributions of BD in the four periods across different provinces were mapped, and heat maps were created to present the seasonality of BD by geography. A cosinor function combined with Poisson regression was used to quantify the seasonal parameters of BD, and a regression analysis was conducted to identify the potential drivers of morbidity and seasonality of BD.


  • Although most regions of China have experienced considerable declines in BD morbidity over the past two decades, Beijing and Ningxia still had high BD morbidity in 2009. BD morbidity decreased more slowly in North-west China than other regions. BD in China mainly peaked from July to September, with heterogeneity in peak time between regions. Relative humidity was associated with BD morbidity and peak time, and latitude was the major predictor of BD amplitude.


  • The transmission of BD was heterogeneous in China. Improved sanitation and hygiene in North-west China, and better access to clean water and food in the big floating population in some metropolises could be the focus of future preventive interventions against BD. BD control efforts should put more emphasis on those dry areas in summer.

Impact and interest:

4 citations in Scopus
5 citations in Web of Science®
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ID Code: 88508
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0104329
ISSN: 1932-6203
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2014 Xu et al.
Deposited On: 10 Nov 2015 04:38
Last Modified: 25 Jun 2017 19:02

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