Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012

Zhang, Wen-Yi, Wang, Li-Ya, Liu, Yun-Xi, Yin, Wen-Wu, Hu, Wen-Biao, Soares Magalhaes, Ricardo, Ding, Fan, Sun, Hai-Long, Zhou, Hang, Li, Shen-Long, Haque, Ubydul, Tong, Shilu, Glass, Gregory, Bi, Peng, Clements, Archie, Liu, Qiyong, & Li, Cheng-Yi (2014) Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 8(11), e3344(1-10).

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Abstract

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures.

Methods

Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences.

Results

A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005–2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties.

Conclusions

This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005–2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

Impact and interest:

11 citations in Scopus
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ID Code: 88570
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003344
ISSN: 1935-2727
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2014 Zhang et al.
Copyright Statement: This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Deposited On: 09 Nov 2015 01:25
Last Modified: 09 Nov 2015 01:25

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