Temperature variation between neighboring days and mortality: a distributed lag non-linear analysis

Cheng, Jian, Zhu, Rui, Xu, Zhiwei, Xu, Xiangqing, Wang, Xu, Li, Kesheng, & Su, Hong (2014) Temperature variation between neighboring days and mortality: a distributed lag non-linear analysis. International Journal of Public Health, 59(6), pp. 923-931.

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To investigate whether a sudden temperature change between neighboring days has significant impact on mortality.


A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear models was used to estimate the association of temperature change between neighboring days with mortality in a subtropical Chinese city during 2008–2012. Temperature change was calculated as the current day’s temperature minus the previous day’s temperature.


A significant effect of temperature change between neighboring days on mortality was observed. Temperature increase was significantly associated with elevated mortality from non-accidental and cardiovascular diseases, while temperature decrease had a protective effect on non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Males and people aged 65 years or older appeared to be more vulnerable to the impact of temperature change.


Temperature increase between neighboring days has a significant adverse impact on mortality. Further health mitigation strategies as a response to climate change should take into account temperature variation between neighboring days.

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7 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 88681
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
DOI: 10.1007/s00038-014-0611-5
ISSN: 1661-8556
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Health Research
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Deposited On: 02 Nov 2015 00:53
Last Modified: 02 Nov 2015 00:53

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