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Development of a predictive model for Ross River virus disease in Brisbane, Australia

Hu, Wenbiao, Nicholls, Neville, Lindsay, Michael, Dale, Patricia E., McMichael, Anthony J., Mackenzie, John S., & Tong, Shilu (2004) Development of a predictive model for Ross River virus disease in Brisbane, Australia. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 71(2), pp. 129-137.

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Abstract

This paper describes the development of an empirical model to forecast epidemics of Ross River virus (RRV) disease using the multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) technique in Brisbane, Australia. We obtained computerised data on notified RRV cases, climate, high tide and population sizes in Brisbane for the period 1985 - 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two data sets: the data between January 1985 - December 2000 were used to construct a model and those between January and December 2001 to validate it. SARIMA models show that monthly precipitation (β=0.004, p=0.031) was statistically significantly associated with RRV transmission. However, there was no significant association between other climate variables (eg, temperature, relative humidity and high tides) and RRV transmission. The predictive values in the model were generally consistent with actual values (root-mean-square percentage error: 0.94%). Therefore, this model may have applications as a decision supportive tool in disease control and risk-management planning programs.

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ID Code: 8886
Item Type: Journal Article
Additional Information: Self-archiving of the author-version is not yet supported by this publisher. For more information, please refer to the journal’s website (see hypertext link) or contact the author. Author contact details: s.tong@qut.edu.au
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Keywords: Climate variation, Predictive model, Ross River virus, Seasonal auto, regressive integrated moving average model
ISSN: 0002-9637
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Health Research
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2004 American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Deposited On: 07 Aug 2007
Last Modified: 29 Feb 2012 23:08

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