Climate variability and Ross River virus transmission

Tong, Shilu, Bi, Peng, Donald, Ken, & McMichael, Anthony J. (2002) Climate variability and Ross River virus transmission. Journal of Epidemiology Community Health, 56(8), pp. 617-621.

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Objectives - (1) To examine the feasibility to link climate data with monthly incidence of Ross River virus (RRv). (2) to assess the impact of climate variability on the RRv transmission. Design - An ecological time-series analysis was performed on the data collected between 1985 to 1996 in Queensland, Australia. Methods - Information on the notified RRv cases was obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Spearman’s rank correlation analyses were performed to examine the relationship between climate variability and the monthly incidence of notified RRv infections. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to perform a time-series analysis. Since maximum and minimum temperatures were highly correlated with each other (rs = 0.75), two separate models were developed. Results - For the eight major cities in Queensland, the climate-RRv correlation coefficients were in the range of 0.12 to 0.52 for maximum and minimum temperatures, -0.10 to 0.46 for rainfall, and 0.11 to 0.52 for relative humidity and high tide. For the whole State, rainfall (partial regression coefficient: 0.017 [95% confidence interval: 0.009-0.025] in Model I and 0.018 [0.010-0.026) in Model II), and high tidal level (0.030 [0.006-0.054] in Model I and 0.029 [0.005-0.053] in Model II) appeared to have played significant roles in the transmission of RRv in Queensland. Maximum temperature was also marginally significantly associated with the incidence of RRv infection. Conclusion - Rainfall, temperature and tidal levels may be important environmental determinants in the transmission cycles of RRv disease.

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ID Code: 8887
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Climate, epidemic polyarthritis, Ross River virus, time, series analysis, vector, borne disease
DOI: 10.1136/jech.56.8.617
ISSN: 0143-005X
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Health Research
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2002 BMJ Publishing Group
Copyright Statement: Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Deposited On: 07 Aug 2007 00:00
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2011 16:05

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