The missing link of crime analysis: A systematic approach to testing competing hypotheses

Townsley, Michael, Mann, Monique, & Garrett, Kristian (2011) The missing link of crime analysis: A systematic approach to testing competing hypotheses. Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 5(2), pp. 158-171.

View at publisher

Abstract

Crime analysts have traditionally received little guidance from academic researchers in key tasks in the analysis process, specifically the testing of multiple hypotheses and evaluating evidence in a scientific fashion. This article attempts to fill this gap by outlining a method (the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses) of systematically analysing multiple explanations for crime problems. The method is systematic, avoids many cognitive errors common in analysis, and is explicit. It is argued that the implementation of this approach makes analytic products audit-able, the reasoning underpinning them transparent, and provides intelligence managers a rational professional development tool for individual analysts.

Impact and interest:

Citation counts are sourced monthly from Scopus and Web of Science® citation databases.

These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.

Citations counts from the Google Scholar™ indexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.

Full-text downloads:

13 since deposited on 17 Jan 2016
12 in the past twelve months

Full-text downloads displays the total number of times this work’s files (e.g., a PDF) have been downloaded from QUT ePrints as well as the number of downloads in the previous 365 days. The count includes downloads for all files if a work has more than one.

ID Code: 91925
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Crime analysis, Intelligence analysis, Hypothesis testing, Cognitive biases, Crime problems, Policing
DOI: 10.1093/police/par023
ISSN: 1752-4512
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > STUDIES IN HUMAN SOCIETY (160000) > CRIMINOLOGY (160200) > Police Administration Procedures and Practice (160205)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Crime & Justice Research Centre
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Law
Current > Schools > School of Justice
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2011 The Authors
Copyright Statement: This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice following peer review. The version of record Policing (2011) 5 (2): 158-171 is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/police/par023
Deposited On: 17 Jan 2016 23:50
Last Modified: 24 Mar 2016 01:59

Export: EndNote | Dublin Core | BibTeX

Repository Staff Only: item control page