Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

Ballesteros-Pérez, Pablo, González-Cruz, M. Carmen, Fuentes-Bargues, Jose Luis, & Skitmore, Martin (2015) Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions. Construction Management and Economics, 33(9), pp. 752-770.

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The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent thirty years little progress has been made - due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. This paper resumes the debate by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to assure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of twelve construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.

Impact and interest:

4 citations in Scopus
4 citations in Web of Science®
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ID Code: 91952
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Modelling, Forecasting, Bidding, Tendering, International comparison, number of bidders
DOI: 10.1080/01446193.2015.1090008
ISSN: 0144-6193
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2015 Taylor & Francis
Copyright Statement: The Version of Record of this manuscript has been published and is available in Construction Management and Economics, 16 October 2015,
Deposited On: 18 Jan 2016 01:39
Last Modified: 03 Jul 2017 03:13

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