Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions
Ballesteros-Pérez, Pablo, Skitmore, Martin, Pellicer, Eugenio, & Gutiérrez-Bahamondes, Jimmy H. (2016) Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions. International Journal of Project Management, 34(2), pp. 158-172.
Administrators only until February 2019 | Request a copy from author
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives 4.0.
Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders’ bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder’s probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.
Impact and interest:
Citation counts are sourced monthly from and citation databases.
These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.
Citations counts from theindexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Keywords:||Bidding, Bidder identity, Auction, Tendering, Construction, Competitiveness|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200)|
|Divisions:||Current > Schools > School of Civil Engineering & Built Environment
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 2015 Elsevier Ltd.|
|Copyright Statement:||This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/|
|Deposited On:||18 Jan 2016 02:45|
|Last Modified:||24 Jan 2016 06:02|
Repository Staff Only: item control page