Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Ballesteros-Pérez, Pablo, Skitmore, Martin, Pellicer, Eugenio, & Gutiérrez-Bahamondes, Jimmy H. (2016) Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions. International Journal of Project Management, 34(2), pp. 158-172.

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Abstract

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders’ bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder’s probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

Impact and interest:

2 citations in Scopus
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1 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 91958
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Bidding, Bidder identity, Auction, Tendering, Construction, Competitiveness
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.11.001
ISSN: 0263-7863
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200)
Divisions: Current > Schools > School of Civil Engineering & Built Environment
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
Copyright Statement: This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Deposited On: 18 Jan 2016 02:45
Last Modified: 24 Jan 2016 06:02

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