Decomposition analysis to examine Australia’s 2030 GHGs emissions target: How hard will it be to achieve?

Shahiduzzaman, Muhammad & Layton, Allan (2015) Decomposition analysis to examine Australia’s 2030 GHGs emissions target: How hard will it be to achieve? Economic Analysis and Policy, 48, pp. 25-34.

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The Australian government has recently pledged a reduction in GHGs emissions of 26–28% below the 2005 level by 2030. How big is the challenge for the country to achieve this target in terms of its present emissions profile, recent historical trends, and the contributions to those trends from key proximate factors contributing to emissions? In this paper, we attempt a quantitative judgement of the challenge by using decomposition analysis. Based on the analysis it appears the announced target will be quite challenging to achieve if the average annual mitigating effects from economic restructuring, energy efficiency improvements and movement towards less emissions-intensive energy sources in evidence over 2002–2013 continued through to 2030; however, if the contribution from these mitigating sources in evidence over 2006–2013 can be sustained, achievement of the target will be much less challenging. The challenge for government then will be to provide a policy framework to ensure the more pronounced beneficial impacts of the mitigating factors evidenced during 2006–2013 can be maintained over the years to 2030.

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ID Code: 95502
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: GHGs Emissions, Decomposition Analysis, Australia
DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2015.10.003
ISSN: 0313-5926
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ECONOMICS (140000) > APPLIED ECONOMICS (140200)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Management
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2015 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland
Deposited On: 11 May 2016 23:58
Last Modified: 12 May 2016 22:22

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