The hype cycle model: A review and future directions

Dedehayir, Ozgur & Steinert, Martin (2016) The hype cycle model: A review and future directions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 108, pp. 28-41.

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Abstract

The hype cycle model traces the evolution of technological innovations as they pass through successive stages pronounced by the peak, disappointment, and recovery of expectations. Since its introduction by Gartner nearly two decades ago, the model has received growing interest from practitioners, and more recently from scholars. Given the model's proclaimed capacity to forecast technological development, an important consideration for organizations in formulating marketing strategies, this paper provides a critical review of the hype cycle model by seeking evidence from Gartner's own technology databases for the manifestation of hype cycles. The results of our empirical work show incongruences connected with the reports of Gartner, which motivates us to consider possible future directions, whereby the notion of hype or hyped dynamics (though not necessarily the hype cycle model itself) can be captured in existing life cycle models through the identification of peak, disappointment, and recovery patterns.

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ID Code: 95588
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Hype Cycle Model, Techological Evolution, Life Cycle Model
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.04.005
ISSN: 0040-1625
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > COMMERCE MANAGEMENT TOURISM AND SERVICES (150000) > BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT (150300) > Innovation and Technology Management (150307)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Current > Schools > School of Management
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2016 Elsevier
Deposited On: 16 May 2016 22:48
Last Modified: 10 Jun 2016 12:25

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